Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania
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Date
2025-01-26
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier Inc.
Abstract
Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used
under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality
over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in
forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030,
a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development
Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based
interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially
in rural areas, taking into account local context.
Sustainable Development Goals
This research article was published in the journal of Franklin Open, Volume 10, 2025
Keywords
Under-five mortality, State space model, Bayesian