Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania
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Date
2025-01-26
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier Inc.
Abstract
Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used
under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality
over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in
forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030,
a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development
Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based
interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially
in rural areas, taking into account local context.
Sustainable Development Goals
SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
SDG 1: No Poverty
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
Keywords
Under-five mortality, State space model, Bayesian