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    Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania

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    Date
    2025-01-26
    Author
    Mwanga, Mohamed
    Mirau, Silas
    Tchuenche, Jean
    Mbalawata, Isambi
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    Abstract
    Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030, a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially in rural areas, taking into account local context.
    URI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fraope.2025.100221
    https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/20.500.12479/3006
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