Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania

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Date
2025-01-26Author
Mwanga, Mohamed
Mirau, Silas
Tchuenche, Jean
Mbalawata, Isambi
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used
under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality
over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in
forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030,
a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development
Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based
interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially
in rural areas, taking into account local context.
URI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fraope.2025.100221https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/20.500.12479/3006