Mathematical modeling of vehicle carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

The demand for transportation, driven by an increasing global population, is continuously rising. This has led to a higher number of vehicles on the road and an increased reliance on fossil fuels. Consequently, the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (𝐶𝑂2) levels has contributed to global warming. Therefore, it is important to consider sustainable transportation practices to meet climate change mitigation targets. In this research paper, a non-linear mathematical model is developed to study the dynamics of atmospheric 𝐶𝑂2 concentration in relation to human population, economic activities, forest biomass, and vehicle population. The developed model is analyzed qualitatively to understand the long-term behavior of the system’s dynamics. Model parameters are fitted to actual data of world population, human economic activities, atmospheric 𝐶𝑂2, forest biomass, and vehicle population. It is shown that increased vehicular 𝐶𝑂2 emissions have a potential contribution to the increase in atmospheric 𝐶𝑂2 and the decline of human population. Numerical simulations are carried out to verify the analytical findings and we performed global sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different sensitive parameters on the 𝐶𝑂2 dynamics.