Modelling the impact of larviciding as a supplementary malaria vector control intervention in rural south-eastern Tanzania: A district-level simulation study

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dc.contributor.authorShirima, GloriaSalome
dc.contributor.authorFairbanks, Emma
dc.contributor.authorTegemeo, Gavana
dc.contributor.authorKiwelu, Gerald
dc.contributor.authorNambunga, Ismail
dc.contributor.authorMlacha, Yeromin
dc.contributor.authorMirau, Silas
dc.contributor.authorChaki, Prosper
dc.contributor.authorChitnis, Nakul
dc.contributor.authorKiware, Samson
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-03T13:02:16Z
dc.date.issued2025-11-15
dc.descriptionSDG 3: Good Health and Well-Being SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
dc.description.abstractCombining larviciding with insecticide treated nets (ITNs) can reduce malaria transmission, but 42 most modelling analyses use generalized scenarios rather than local contexts. In Tanzania and 43 other countries, larviciding is increasingly being prioritized in national strategies, with growing 44 advocacy for its broader implementation, to achieving sustained malaria reduction. District- 45 specific modelling is therefore essential to capture variation in transmission ecology, seasonality, 46 and varying coverage levels, providing evidence that is both rigorous and actionable for malaria 47 control programs. The Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) was adapted and extended to 48 incorporate local seasonality, simulating the impact of larviciding across a range of coverage levels 49 combined with ITNs. The model was parameterized using district-level field-data on mosquito 50 mortality collected before (2016-2017) and after (2019-2021) larviciding implementation. 51 Mosquito mortality rates were estimated using Bayesian inference. Outcomes were evaluated 52 specifically for Anopheles gambiae s.l. including annual entomological inoculation rates (EIR) and 53 mosquito density. Sensitivity analysis explored the influence of key parameters driving 54 transmission in this scenario study. The immature mosquito mortality rate due to larviciding is 55 estimated to be 61% based on field data. VCOM simulation showed that, at 80%, ITNs coverage, 56 larviciding substantially reduced mosquito densities and EIR. Specifically, combining ITNs at 57 80% and larviciding coverage ≥ 60% lowered EIR below 1, the threshold required to interrupt 58 malaria transmission. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the high impact of targeting immature 59 mosquitoes, suggesting larviciding can effectively complement ITNs to control vectors, including 60 invasive species like An. stephensi, regardless of feeding preference, resting, and biting behaviors, 61 which hinder the effectiveness of most vector control tools. This study provides local evidence 62 that larviciding is an effective complement to ITNs for interrupting malaria transmission. 63 Implementation should leverage innovative approaches, such as drones for precise mapping and 64 targeted application of biological larvicides, to maximize coverage, and scalability for district- 65 level malaria control and elimination
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.13.25340176
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/123456789/3574
dc.language.isoen
dc.publishermedRxiv
dc.subjectLarviciding
dc.subjectITNs
dc.subjectVCOM
dc.subjectmalaria transmission
dc.subjectdistrict-level modeling
dc.titleModelling the impact of larviciding as a supplementary malaria vector control intervention in rural south-eastern Tanzania: A district-level simulation study
dc.typeArticle

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