Modelling health risks related to second hand tobacco smoke exposure
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Date
2025-07
Authors
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Publisher
NM-AIST
Abstract
Apart from being dangerous to the smokers, tobacco smoke is also harmful to non-smokers
through their exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke. It is worthy note that, increased exposure
to secondhand tobacco smoke accelerates health risks and deaths to non-smokers. Eventually,
this situation calls for exploration of the extent to which exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke
causes health risks to non-smokers who interact with smokers at the time of smoking. More
over, it sparks assessment of effective strategies to be adopted to minimize those health risks
on non-smokers. In the present study, deterministic and optimal control mathematical mod
els are developed to study the dynamics of secondhand tobacco smoke exposure in relation to
health risks on non-smokers. Findings from the present study reveal backward bifurcation of
the system signifying a possibility of emerging large outbreaks of health risks caused by sec
ondhand tobacco smoke in the community even if there is a small number of smokers in that
community. Additionally, numerical simulation results reveal that, the increase in interaction
between smokers and non-smokers at the time of smoking by 90% leads to increase in health
risks related with secondhand tobacco exposure by 7%. Moreover, findings reveal that building
designated smoking areas and initiating quitting smoking campaigns concurrently is the most
effective strategy to be implemented as it reduces exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke by
approximately 88%. Therefore, the study recommends that efforts to minimize health risks on
non-smokers should be focused on reducing interaction between smokers and non-smokers and
initiating smoking cessation campaigns.
Sustainable Development Goals
SDG-3: Good Health and Well-Being
SDG-10: Reduced Inequalities
SDG-11: Sustainable Cities and Communities