Mathematical modelling of cryptosporidiosis transmission dynamics and control in humans and cattle
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Date
2025-12
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NM-AIST
Abstract
Cryptosporidiosis is a globally significant zoonotic disease caused by Cryptosporidium, posing a substantial concern for public health and veterinary medicine. Despite the significant contribution of cattle and human immune status in shaping the transmission dynamics and control of cryptosporidiosis, there is limited evidence of mathematical models that concurrently incorporate this aspect. This study aimed to investigate the transmission dynamics and control of cryptosporidiosis in humans and cattle using mathematical modelling. Non-linear ordinary differential equations were used to formulate deterministic models, from which the assumptions for the corresponding continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic models were derived. Using the next-generation matrix technique, the basic and effective reproduction numbers were computed. Latin Hypercube Sampling was applied to compute Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, allowing for a global sensitivity analysis of the parameters influencing disease transmission dynamics. The existence of disease-free and endemic equilibria was well established, and their stability was examined using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and the Lyapunov function method, respectively. The multitype branching process was employed to compute the likelihood of disease extinction or outbreak in the CTMC stochastic models. Lastly, the optimal control theory was applied to determine the most effective strategy for controlling and preventing cryptosporidiosis in humans and cattle. The results revealed that cattle significantly influence the dynamics of the disease. Immunocompromised humans contribute more substantially to the dynamics of the disease than immunocompetent humans. The persistence of cryptosporidiosis is influenced by increased disease transmission rates and higher shedding rates of Cryptosporidium oocysts into the environment by infectious cattle and humans. Cryptosporidiosis is more likely to extinct if it emerges from infected immunocompetent human compartments than from infected immunocompromised compartments. Contrarily, a disease major outbreak is probable if it originates from either infected cattle compartments or Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment. The optimal control model findings suggest that the best strategy for controlling and preventing cryptosporidiosis is the simultaneous implementation of all six control efforts, grouped into preventions, treatments, and environmental decontamination. Thus, efforts to prevent and control cryptosporidiosis should concentrate on eliminating Cryptosporidium oocysts from the environment, treating infectious cattle and humans, maintaining proper sanitation practices and sound cattle farm management and hygiene practices.
Sustainable Development Goals
SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being