Evaluating the effectiveness of stochastic CTMC and deterministic models in correlating rabies persistence in human and dog populations
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Date
2025-10-24
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Rabies continues to pose a significant zoonotic threat, particularly in areas with high populations of domestic
dogs that serve as viral reservoirs. This study conducts a comparative analysis of Stochastic Continuous-Time
Markov Chain (CTMC) and deterministic models to gain insights into rabies persistence within human and
canine populations. By employing a multitype branching process, the stochastic threshold for rabies persistence
was determined, revealing important insights into how stochasticity influences extinction probabilities. The
stochastic model utilized 10,000 sample paths to estimate the probabilities of rabies outbreaks, offering
a rigorous assessment of the variability in disease occurrences. Additionally, the study introduces a novel
mathematical formulation of rabies transmission dynamics, which includes environmental reservoirs, free-
ranging dogs, and domestic dogs as essential transmission factors. The basic reproduction number (0) was
derived and analyzed within stochastic frameworks, effectively bridging the gap between these two modeling
approaches. Numerical simulations confirmed that the results from the stochastic model closely aligned with
those from the deterministic model, while also highlighting the importance of stochasticity in scenarios with
low infection rates. Ultimately, the study advocates for a comprehensive approach to rabies control that
integrates both the predictable trends identified through deterministic models and the impact of random events
emphasized by stochastic models.
Sustainable Development Goals
3: Good Health and Well-being
15: Life on Land
17: Partnerships for the Goals
Keywords
Rabies, CTMC, Stochastic model, Coefficient of correlation, Multitype branching process