Ecological modeling for the dynamics of potato tuber moth in Irish potatoes biomass
| dc.contributor.author | Sanga, Luta | |
| dc.contributor.author | Masanja, Verdiana | |
| dc.contributor.author | Mbalawata, Isambi | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-10T17:43:24Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-09 | |
| dc.description | SDG - 2 : Zero Hunger | |
| dc.description.abstract | The Potato Tuber Moth (Phthorimaea operculella) threatens food security and livelihoods in developing nations, especially for smallholder farmers dependent on Irish potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.). This study has developed a non-linear deterministic ecological model to analyze the moth's dynamics in Irish potatoes biomass with deployment of predators and farming campaigns aiming to minimize Moth population growth and enhance Irish potato harvest. The model analysis demonstrates that the coexistence equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, as evidenced by phase portraits. To validate the model, parameter estimation and model fitting were conducted using non-linear least squares. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis was carried out using Latin Hypercube Sampling to determine the most influential parameters affecting the system's behavior. Numerical simulations reveals that Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies, combining predators and farming campaigns, effectively reduced pest populations while maximizing potato yields to approximately 100 tubers per square meter, compared to sub-optimal yields of 33 tubers per square meter with predators alone. This study recommends IPM strategies as a good approach to minimize Potato Tuber Moth (PTM) and optimize Irish potatoes yields. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.105814 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/123456789/3218 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | |
| dc.subject | Potatoes tuber moth | |
| dc.subject | Ecological model | |
| dc.subject | Irish potatoes | |
| dc.title | Ecological modeling for the dynamics of potato tuber moth in Irish potatoes biomass | |
| dc.type | Article |