Oil price factors : forecasting on the base of modified auto-regressive integrated moving average model
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Date
2018-11
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy (IJEEP)
Abstract
The paper proposes modification of auto-regressive integrated moving average model for finding the parameters of estimation and forecasts using
exponential smoothing. The study use data Brent crude oil price and gas prices in the period from January 1991 to December 2016. The result of the
study showed an improvement in the accuracy of the predicted values, while the emissions occurred near the end of the time series. It has minimal or
no effect on other emissions of this data series. The study suggests that investors can predict prices analyzing the possible risks in oil futures markets.
Sustainable Development Goals
This research article was published by International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019, 9(1), 149-159.
Keywords
Oil Price Forecast, Econometric Model, Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model