A two-patch model to quantify uncertainties in the transmission of brucellosis between domestic animals
| dc.contributor.author | Msuya, Rehema | |
| dc.contributor.author | Mirau, Silas | |
| dc.contributor.author | Nyerere, Nkuba | |
| dc.contributor.author | Mbalawata, Isambi | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-10T15:07:53Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-09 | |
| dc.description | SDG - 1 : No Poverty SDG - 2 : Zero Hunger SDG - 3 : Good Health and Well-being SDG -15 : Life on Land | |
| dc.description.abstract | Brucellosis, a neglected zoonotic disease, poses significant health risks to both humans and livestock. This study investigates a key factor influencing brucellosis transmission: the movement of animals in and out of communal grazing areas. We develop a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) stochastic model, building on its deterministic counterpart, to assess the impact of short-term animal movements on disease transmission dynamics. By incorporating stochasticity, the model captures the inherent variability in disease transmission and animal movements, providing deeper insights than traditional deterministic models. A multitype branching process is employed to evaluate the probabilities of disease extinction. We compute the basic reproduction number and the stochastic threshold . Numerical simulations indicate that brucellosis transmission accelerates when domestic animals spend more time in high-risk communal grazing areas. Additionally, the results suggest a high probability of disease extinction when animals moves out of high-risk area. Conversely, when animals from both patches increase their time in high-risk zones, the likelihood of disease extinction diminishes. This study underscores the importance of implementing strategic movement controls and targeted interventions in high-risk areas to mitigate outbreaks and enhance disease management. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fraope.2025.100319 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/123456789/3217 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | |
| dc.subject | Brucellosis | |
| dc.subject | Patch model | |
| dc.subject | Transmission | |
| dc.subject | Branching process | |
| dc.subject | Probability of extinction | |
| dc.title | A two-patch model to quantify uncertainties in the transmission of brucellosis between domestic animals | |
| dc.type | Article |