| dc.description.abstract | Wheat stem rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) remains a major threat to global wheat production, yet its dynamics in Tanzania, especially in the context of climate change (CC), are not well understood. This research, conducted during the 2023 wheat growing season, investigates the impact of climate change on wheat stem rust in key wheat-growing regions of Tanzania of Manyara, Mbeya, Iringa, Kilimanjaro, and Arusha. The results show widespread occurrence of wheat stem rust across all surveyed fields, with the highest disease severity observed in the northern regions (Manyara, Arusha, and Kilimanjaro), where warmer temperatures (23–25 °C) and higher humidity (55–65%) create conducive conditions for disease development. Conversely, the southern regions, characterized by cooler temperatures (12–13 °C) and more variable humidity (55–75%), exhibited lower disease levels. The research also revealed that traditional wheat varieties, such as Mamba and Juhudi, are more susceptible to stem rust compared to modern varieties like Riziki and Njombe 7, with the Sifa variety showing significant resistance. Pearson correlation analysis confirmed strong positive correlations between disease severity and both relative humidity (r = 0.67, p < 0.01) and temperature (r = 0.72, p < 0.01). The findings suggest that rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall patterns due to CC will likely intensify wheat stem rust incidence and severity in Tanzania, with projections indicating an increase of ≥20% in incidence and ≥30% in severity by mid-century. This research fills a critical gap in understanding the regional effects of CC on wheat diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. It underscores the need for adaptive management strategies, including the promotion of resistant wheat varieties, to mitigate future risks to wheat production. The research also highlights the importance of increased investment in research and policy to build agricultural resilience and enhance food security. Future research should focus on improving climate models for disease forecasting and exploring sustainable, region-specific management strategies for wheat stem rust. These findings offer valuable insights into the localized impacts of climate change on wheat diseases and provide actionable guidance for enhancing disease management strategies and promoting climate-smart agricultural practices in Tanzania. | en_US |
