Browsing by Author "Mwanga, Mohamed"

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Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania
(Elsevier Inc., 2025-01-26) Mwanga, Mohamed; Mirau, Silas; Tchuenche, Jean; Mbalawata, Isambi
Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030, a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially in rural areas, taking into account local context.
Posterior Distribution of the Unknown Parameter of Poisson Distribution Under Different Priors: An Application to Under-Fivemortality Data
(SSRN, 2023-03-30) Mwanga, Mohamed; Tchuenche, Jean; Mirau, Silas; Mbalawata, Isambi
Under-five mortality rate is one of the most essential indicator of acountry’s socio-economic well-being and public health status. Poissondistribution under different priors such as conjugate/Gamma prior,uniform and Jeffrey’s prior is used to obtain posterior distribution ofthe unknown parameter with an application to under-five mortalitydata in six East Africa countries from 1960 to 2020. The estimatesare examined through a Bayesian analysis while all the calculationsare carried out the R-statistical software and MS Excel. Among allpriors used in this study, conjugate prior was found to be compatiblefor the unknown parameters of the Poisson distribution. The casesof under-five mortality are found to reduce over time. East Africacountries through East Africa Community (EAC) should build strongand resilient health systems, identify and prioritize interventions tomitigate under-five mortality among Member States.
Posterior Distribution of the Unknown Parameter of Poisson Distribution Under Different Priors: An Application to Under-Fivemortality Data
(Elsevier Inc, 2023-04-23) Mwanga, Mohamed; Tchuenche, Jean; Mirau, Silas; Mbalawata, Isambi
Under-five mortality rate is one of the most essential indicator of acountry’s socio-economic well-being and public health status. Poissondistribution under different priors such as conjugate/Gamma prior,uniform and Jeffrey’s prior is used to obtain posterior distribution ofthe unknown parameter with an application to under-five mortalitydata in six East Africa countries from 1960 to 2020. The estimatesare examined through a Bayesian analysis while all the calculationsare carried out the R-statistical software and MS Excel. Among allpriors used in this study, conjugate prior was found to be compatiblefor the unknown parameters of the Poisson distribution. The casesof under-five mortality are found to reduce over time. East Africacountries through East Africa Community (EAC) should build strongand resilient health systems, identify and prioritize interventions tomitigate under-five mortality among Member States.