Sensitivity analysis and parameters estimation for the transmission of lymphatic filariasis

Abstract

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease which poses public health concern and socio- economic challenges in developing and low-income countries. In this paper, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to generate data by white noise and use least square method to estimate parameter values. The validity of estimated parameter values is tested by Gaussian distribution method. The residuals of model outputs are normally distributed and hence can be used to study the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. After deriving the basic reproduction number, 0 by the next generation matrix approach, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient is employed to explore which parameters significantly affect and most influential to the model outputs. The analysis for equilibrium states shows that the Lymphatic free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less a unity and endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when 0 ≥ 1. The findings reveal that rate of human infection, recruitment rate of mosquitoes increase the average new infections for Lymphatic filariasis. Moreover, asymptomatic individual contribute significantly in the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis