Browsing by Author "Shoemaker, Anna"

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Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania
(Zenodo, 2021-01-13) Kariuki, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.
(PLOS ONE, 2021-02-12) Kariuki, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
Multiple paleofire proxy metrics from tropical lake sediment and soil in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem
(Sage, 2025-06) Mustaphi, Colin; Camara-Brugger, Sandra; Chellman, Nathan; Muñoz, Samuel; Kariuki, Rebecca; Damber, Maja; Shoemaker, Anna; Ekblom, Anneli; Munishi, Linus; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob; Heiri, Oliver
Black carbon is a paleofire proxy that has been measured from glacial ice, snow, soils and lake sediments, though relatively few comparisons have been made with other fire indicators in sedimentary geoarchives. Microscopic charcoal, quantified from palynological microscope slides and macroscopic charcoal, quantified from wet-sieved deposits, are the most commonly applied methods for paleofire interpretation of Quaternary sediments. This research explores the down-profile patterns across three paleofire proxies (refractory black carbon, microscopic and macroscopic charcoal) and potential paleofire interpretations from a sediment core dating to the last centuries from Speke Gulf, Lake Victoria, and a young soil profile from a kopje located in the surrounding watershed in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. The results of three paleofire metrics show similar trends within each site, with a positive trend across all metrics and increasing variability with increased measurement values (heteroscedastic). Notably, refractory black carbon (rBC) concentrations are two orders of magnitude higher in lake sediment samples compared to soil samples. rBC is positively correlated with both microscopic and macroscopic charcoal values and the overall profile patterns down the sediment core are similar, with the exception of the rBC increases from 2.5 to 0 cm depth that may result from increased fossil fuel combustion. The Speke Gulf rBC measurements are in an intermediate range between those published from glacial ice and other lake sediments. New rBC records from different ecosystems and temporal scales will provide paleofire insights and potential to interpret source areas and depositional patterns. The exploration of soil archives offers the potential to exploit semi-arid ecosystems and archaeological sites that have no nearby traditional paleoenvironmental study site targets.
Multiporate Poaceae pollen grains observed in the recent fossil record from the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem and Lake Victoria region
(Elsevier, 2025-02-01) Mustaphi, Colin; Camara-Brugger, Sandra; Ekblom, Anneli; Munishi, Linus; Kariuki, Rebecca; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
The analysis of fossil pollen from sediments is used to understand past vegetation and land cover variability. The observations of multiporate Poaceae pollen from sediments have received little attention in the literature and causes and rates of occurrence have few estimates, and the rates observed in the sediments are much lower than estimates observed from modern plants in Asia. Pollen analysis of the uppermost sediments from Speke Gulf, Lake Victoria, eastern Africa, showed relative abundances of Poaceae between 65 and 75% during the past centuries. A total of 19 of the ∼ 11,000 Poaceae pollen grains observed had conspicuous morphological variations and were documented. More consistent presence of abnormal grains occurred since the mid twentieth century, at the same time of increased anthropogenic environmental stressors. Multiporate pollen grains of Poaceae have been previously observed in Asia, South America, and northern Africa, predominantly in the Panicoideae subfamily. Morphological variations may present an added challenge for automated pollen identification techniques and descriptions of fossil pollen.
Pathways from research to sustainable development: Insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience
(Springer, 2023-11-23) Scaini, Anna; Mulligan, Joseph; Berg, Ha˚kan; Brangarı´, Albert; Bukachi, Vera; Carenzo, Sebastian; Thi, Da Chau; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Ekblom, Anneli; Fjelde, Hanne; Fridahl, Mathias; Hansson, Anders; Hicks, Lettice; Ho¨jer, Mattias; Juma, Benard; Kain, Jaan-Henrik; Kariuki, Rebecca; Kim, Soben; Lane, Paul; Leizeaga, Ainara; Lindborg, Regina; Livsey, John; Lyon, Steve; Marchant, Rob; McConville, Jennifer; Munishi, Linus; Nilsson, David; Olang, Luke; Olin, Stefan; Olsson, Lennart; Rogers, Peter; Rousk, Johannes; Sande´n, Hans; Sasaki, Nophea; Shoemaker, Anna; Smith, Benjamin; Phuong, Lan Thai; Varela, Ana; Venkatappa, Manjunatha; Vico, Giulia; Uexkull, Nina; Wamsler, Christine; Wondie, Menale; Zapata, Patrick; Campos, Marı´a Jose´; Manzoni, Stefano; Tompsett, Anna
Drawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger- scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycle
Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals
(Frontiers in Conservation Science, 2022-09-23) Kariuki, Rebecca; Capitani, Claudia; Munishi, Linus; Shoemaker, Anna; Mustaphi, Colin; William, Njonga; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals.