Browsing by Author "Sabini, Theresia Shirima"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3

Mathematical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis in Human and Livestock with Control Strategies
(International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering (ijasre), 2019-10) Sabini, Theresia Shirima; Nyerere, Nkuba; Irunde, Jacob Ismail; Kuznetsov, Dmitry
A deterministic mathematical model for bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB) in humans and livestock is formulated and used to assess the effectiveness of dairy products inspection, human treatment and quarantine of infected livestock as the control of the disease transmission. The computed effective reproduction number shows that the disease can be cleared from the population if Re is less than unity and it persists if Re is greater than unity. It means that if Re<1 the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable which means the disease can be cleared from the population and endemic when Re>1 which implies the disease persists in the population. Numerical analysis was carried out to investigate how the controls can help to minimize the spread of the disease.
Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis
(Hindawi, 2020-03-30) Sabini, Theresia Shirima; Irunde, Jacob Ismail; Kuznetsov, Dmitry
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a bacterial and zoonotic disease which is transmitted through consumption of unpasteurized milk and uncooked meat and inhalation of aerosols. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model is formulated to study the transmission dynamics of bTB in humans and animals. The basic reproduction number R0 is computed to determine the behavior of the disease. Stability analysis shows that there is a possibility for disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium to coexist when R0 = 1. To determine parameters which drive the dynamics of bTB, we performed sensitivity analysis. The analysis shows that the rate at which dairy products are produced, the rate of transmission of bTB from animal to animal, and the rates at which human acquires bTB from infectious dairy products and animals drive the transmission of bTB. However, the disease decreases as the rate of consumption of dairy products decreases. To control bTB, education campaign, inspection of dairy products, treatment of infected humans, and quarantine of infected animals are recommended.
Modeling the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis with control parameters
(NM-AIST, 2020-03) Sabini, Theresia Shirima
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a bacterial and zoonotic disease which is transmitted through; consumption of unpasteurized milk, raw meat and inhalation of aerosols. This study used a deterministic mathematical model to assess the impact of each parameter in the transmission of bTB. The basic reproduction number R computed to determine the behaviour of the disease. The disease-free equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1, and it is unstable otherwise. However, there is a possibility for the diseases free equilibrium to coexist with endemic equilibrium when R = 1. The parameters which drive the dynamics of bTB computed and sensitivity analysis performed. The analysis shows that the basic reproduction number R 0 0 increases proportionally as the most positive sensitive parameters are increases. However, the rate of animal deaths due to the disease mortality, the rate of natural animal deaths and the rate of leaking for unused dairy products are conversely proportional to the basic reproduction number R . Numerical analysis performed to analyse how sensitive each parameter is to the disease. Results show that bTB will increase when we increase rates of consuming dairy products and contacts with infected humans and animals, respectively. The basic model then extended by including control parameters to reduce bTB transmission. The effective reproduction number R e 0 decreases as we increase treatment of infected humans, quarantine of infected animals and inspection of the dairy product. However, the standard requirement of effective reproduction number Re to be less than a unit for the disease to clear is not enough because the model undergoes backward bifurcation when R = 1. Numerical analysis carried out to study the long term behaviour of bTB. Simulations show that when control parameters increase, the number of susceptible humans and animals increases, while the number of infected humans and animals decreases. To contained Bovine tuberculosis, there should be the treatment of infected humans, are quarantine of infected animals and dairy products should be inspected.