Browsing by Author "Mbelwa, Jimmy"

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Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Chicken Diseases Detection
(International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 2021) Mbelwa, Hope; Machuve, Dina; Mbelwa, Jimmy
For many years in the society, farmers rely on experts to diagnose and detect chicken diseases. As a result, farmers lose many domesticated birds due to late diagnoses or lack of reliable experts. With the available tools from artificial intelligence and machine learning based on computer vision and image analysis, the most common diseases affecting chicken can be identified easily from the images of chicken droppings. In this study, we propose a deep learning solution based on Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) to predict whether the faeces of chicken belong to either of the three classes. We also leverage the use of pre-trained models and develop a solution for the same problem. Based on the comparison, we show that the model developed from the XceptionNet outperforms other models for all metrics used. The experimental results show the apparent gain of transfer learning (validation accuracy of 94% using pretraining over its contender 93.67% developed CNN from fully training on the same dataset). In general, the developed fully trained CNN comes second when compared with the other model. The results show that pre-trained XceptionNet method has overall performance and highest prediction accuracy, and can be suitable for chicken disease detection application.
The Effect of Hyperparameter Optimization on the Estimation of Performance Metrics in Network Traffic Prediction using the Gradient Boosting Machine Model
(Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research (ETASR), 2023-06) Mbelwa, Jimmy; Agbinya, Johnson; Mwita, Machoke; Sam, Anael
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has changed the way we communicate and access information, resulting in the high generation of heterogeneous data. The amount of network traffic generated constantly increases in velocity, veracity, and volume as we enter the era of big data. Network traffic classification and intrusion detection are very important for the early detection and identification of unnecessary network traffic. The Machine Learning (ML) approach has recently entered the center stage in network traffic accurate classification. However, in most cases, it does not apply model hyperparameter optimization. In this study, gradient boosting machine prediction was used with different hyperparameter optimization configurations, such as interaction depth, tree number, learning rate, and sampling. Data were collected through an experimental setup by using the Sophos firewall and Cisco router data loggers. Data analysis was conducted with R software version 4.2.0 with Rstudio Integrated Development Environment. The dataset was split into two partitions, where 70% was used for training the model and 30% for testing. At a learning rate of 0.1, interaction depth of 14, and tree number of 2500, the model estimated the highest performance metrics with an accuracy of 0.93 and R of 0.87 compared to 0.90 and 0.85 before model optimization. The same configuration attained the minimum classification error of 0.07 than 0.10 before model optimization. After model tweaking, a method was developed for achieving improved accuracy, R square, mean decrease in Gini coefficients for more than 8 features, lower classification error, root mean square error, logarithmic loss, and mean square error in the model.
Indicative Factors for SACCOs Failure in Tanzania
(Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, 2023-08-09) Magashi, Cosmas; Sam, Anael; Agbinya, John; Mbelwa, Jimmy
SACCOs are viewed as a feasible opportunity toward financial inclusion in an economy where most of the citizens are poor, as they are very essential for the socio-economic development of members, the community, and the world at large. However, SACCOs sometimes do not realize the expected socio-economic potential, especially when they fail. This study aimed to comprehensively assess financial and non-financial factors, at institutional and personal levels, that contribute to the failure of SACCOS in Tanzania. The data were collected using a questionnaire on 5,000 members of SACCOs, obtained using stratified random sampling. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. The findings showed that both financial and non-financial factors, at personal and institutional levels, had a statistically significant and positive relationship with the failure of SACCOs. Therefore, the performance of SACCOs and other Microfinance Financial Institutions (MFIs) should be addressed from a comprehensive view of both financial and non-financial factors, at personal or institutional levels. In other words, the failure of MFIs should be addressed from a holistic point of view.
Performance Comparison of Ensemble Learning and Supervised Algorithms in Classifying Multi-label Network Traffic Flow
(Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, 2022-06) Machoke, Mwita; Mbelwa, Jimmy; Agbinya, Johnson; Sam, Anael
Network traffic classification is of significant importance. It helps identify network anomalies and assists in taking measures to avoid them. However, classifying network traffic correctly is a challenging task. This study aims to compare ensemble learning methods with normal supervised classification to come up with improved classification methods. Three types of network traffic were classified (Benign, Malicious, and Outliers). The data were collected experimentally by using Paessler Router Traffic Grapher software and online and were analyzed by R software. The datasets were used to train five supervised models (k-nearest neighbors, mixture discriminant analysis, Naïve Bayes, C5.0 classification model, and regularized discriminant analysis). The models were trained by 70% of the samples and the rest 30% were used for validation. The same samples were used separately in predicting individual accuracy. The results were compared to the ensemble learning models which were built with the use of the same datasets. Among the five supervised classifiers, k-nearest neighbors and C5.0 classification scored the highest accuracy of 0.868 and 0.761. The ensemble learning classifiers Bagging (Random Forest) and Boosting (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) had accuracy of 0.904 and 0.902 respectively. The results show that the ensemble learning method has higher accuracy compared to the normal supervised classifiers. Therefore, it can be used to detect malicious activities in network traffic as well as anomalies with improved accuracy.
Prediction of SACCOS Failure in Tanzania using Machine Learning Models
(Engineering, Technology and Applied Science Research, 2024-02-08) Magashi, Cosmas; Agbinya, Johnson; Sam, Anael; Mbelwa, Jimmy
Savings and Credit Co-Operative Societies (SACCOS) are seen as viable opportunities to promote financial inclusion and overall socioeconomic development. Despite the positive outlook for socioeconomic progress, recent observations have highlighted instances of SACCOS failures. For example, the number of SACCOS decreased from 4,177 in 2018 to 3,714 in 2019, and the value of shares held by SACCOS members in Tanzania dropped from Tshs 57.06 billion to 53.63 billion in 2018. In particular, there is limited focus on predicting SACCOS failures in Tanzania using predictive models. In this study, data were collected using a questionnaire from 880 members of SACCOS, using a stratified random sampling technique. The collected data was analyzed using machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The results showed that RF was the most effective model to classify and predict failures, followed by LR and KNN, while the results of SVM were not satisfactory. The findings show that RF is the most suitable model to predict SACCOS failures in Tanzania, challenging the common use of regression models in microfinance institutions. Consequently, the RF model could be considered when formulating policies related to SACCOS performance evaluation.