Browsing by Author "Masandawa, Lemjini"

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Mathematical modeling of covid-19 transmission dynamics between healthcare workers and community
(NM-AIST, 2022-06) Masandawa, Lemjini
COVID-19 pandemic has posed an unprecedented threat to global public health. Health profes sionals caring for COVID-19 patients face insomnia, mental stress, physical exhaustion, stigma, the pain of losing patients and colleagues. Many of them acquired SARS-CoV-2 and some died. Protection of this workforce is of paramount importance to ensure optimal care to patients. Thus, this study contributes to the subject by formulating a deterministic mathematical model SW E IsIaHR (Susceptible - Healthcare workers - Exposed - Symptomatic - Asymptomatic - Hospi talized - Recovered) that combines both healthcare workers (as an independent compartment) and community and focuses on the protection of the healthcare workforce against SARS-COV-2. Benefiting the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number (R0) was computed. Routh-Hurwitz criterion and stable Metzler matrix theory revealed that disease-free equilibrium point is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever R0 < 1, respectively. Lyapunov func tion depicted that the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. Further, the dynamics behavior of R0 was explored when varying the use personal protective equipment (ξ) and physical distancing (θ). In the absence of protective measures (ξ and θ), the value of R0 was 6.7125 which implies the expansion of the disease. When θ and ξ were introduced in the model, R0 was 0.6713, indicating the decrease of the disease in the community. Numer ical solutions were simulated by using Runge-Kutta fourth-order method. The numerical results illustrated mathematically that protection of health care workers can be achieved through effec tive use of personal protective equipment and minimization of transmission of COVID-19 in the community.
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics between healthcare workers and community
(Elsevier, 2021-10) Masandawa, Lemjini; Mirau, Silas; Mbalawata, Isambi
Corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that has affected different groups of humankind such as farmers, soldiers, drivers, educators, students, healthcare workers and many others. The transmission rate of the disease varies from one group to another depending on the contact rate. Healthcare workers are at a high risk of contracting the disease due to the high contact rate with patients. So far, there exists no mathematical model which combines both public control measures (as a parameter) and healthcare workers (as an independent compartment). Combining these two in a given mathematical model is very important because healthcare workers are protected through effective use of personal protective equipment, and control measures help to minimize the spread of COVID-19 in the community. This paper presents a mathematical model named SWE 𝐼𝑠 𝐼𝑎HR; susceptible individuals (S), healthcare workers (W), exposed (E), symptomatic infectious (𝐼𝑠 ), asymptomatic infectious (𝐼𝑎 ), hospitalized (H), recovered (R). The value of basic reproduction number 𝑅0 for all parameters in this study is 2.8540. In the absence of personal protective equipment 𝜉 and control measure in the public 𝜃, the value of 𝑅0 ≈ 4.6047 which implies the presence of the disease. When 𝜃 and 𝜉 were introduced in the model, basic reproduction number is reduced to 0.4606, indicating the absence of disease in the community. Numerical solutions are simulated by using Runge–Kutta fourth-order method. Sensitivity analysis is performed to presents the most significant parameter. Furthermore, identifiability of model parameters is done using the least square method. The results indicated that protection of healthcare workers can be achieved through effective use of personal protective equipment by healthcare workers and minimization of transmission of COVID-19 in the general public by the implementation of control measures. Generally, this paper emphasizes the importance of using protective measures.
Mathematical modeling of vaccination as a control measure of stress to fight COVID-19 infections
(Elsevier, 2023-01) Paul, James; Mbalawata, Isambi; Mirau, Silas; Masandawa, Lemjini
The world experienced the life-threatening COVID-19 disease worldwide since its inversion. The whole world experienced difficult moments during the COVID-19 period, whereby most individual lives were affected by the disease socially and economically. The disease caused millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. To fight and control the COVID-19 disease intensity, mathematical modeling was an essential tool used to determine the potentiality and seriousness of the disease. Due to the effects of the COVID-19 disease, scientists observed that vaccination was the main option to fight against the disease for the betterment of human lives and the world economy. Unvaccinated individuals are more stressed with the disease, hence their body’s immune system are affected by the disease. In this study, the 𝑆𝑉 𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 deterministic model of COVID- 19 with six compartments was proposed and analyzed. Analytically, the next-generation matrix method was used to determine the basic reproduction number (𝑅0). Detailed stability analysis of the no-disease equilibrium (𝐸0) of the proposed model to observe the dynamics of the system was carried out and the results showed that 𝐸0 is stable if 𝑅0 < 1 and unstable when 𝑅0 > 1. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the parameter identifiability was discussed. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of 𝑅0 showed that vaccination was an essential method to control the disease. With the presence of a vaccine in our 𝑆𝑉 𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 model, the results showed that 𝑅0 = 0.208, which means COVID-19 is fading out of the community and hence minimizes the transmission. Moreover, in the absence of a vaccine in our model, 𝑅0 = 1.7214, which means the disease is in the community and spread very fast. The numerical simulations demonstrated the importance of the proposed model because the numerical results agree with the sensitivity results of the system. The numerical simulations also focused on preventing the disease to spread in the community
Modeling nosocomial infection of COVID-19 transmission dynamics
(Elsevier, 2022-06) Masandawa, Lemjini; Mirau, Silas; Mbalawata, Isambi; Paul, James; Kreppel, Katharina; Msamba, Oscar
COVID-19 epidemic has posed an unprecedented threat to global public health. The disease has alarmed the healthcare system with the harm of nosocomial infection. Nosocomial spread of COVID-19 has been discovered and reported globally in different healthcare facilities. Asymptomatic patients and super-spreaders are sough to be among of the source of these infections. Thus, this study contributes to the subject by formulating a 𝑆𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 mathematical model to gain the insight into nosocomial infection for COVID-19 transmission dynamics. The role of personal protective equipment 𝜃 is studied in the proposed model. Benefiting the next generation matrix method, 𝑅0 was computed. Routh–Hurwitz criterion and stable Metzler matrix theory revealed that COVID-19-free equilibrium point is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever 𝑅0 < 1. Lyapunov function depicted that the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when 𝑅0 > 1. Further, the dynamics behavior of 𝑅0 was explored when varying 𝜃. In the absence of 𝜃, the value of 𝑅0 was 8.4584 which implies the expansion of the disease. When 𝜃 is introduced in the model, 𝑅0 was 0.4229, indicating the decrease of the disease in the community. Numerical solutions were simulated by using Runge–Kutta fourth order method. Global sensitivity analysis is performed to present the most significant parameter. The numerical results illustrated mathematically that personal protective equipment can minimizes nosocomial infections of COVID-19.
Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis Control Strategies
(CC-BY 4.0 International license, 2025-08-06) Masandawa, Lemjini; Amadi, Miracle; Mbalawata, Isambi; Kinung, Safari; Mirau, Silas
Soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) is a parasitic disease that affects over 1.5 billion people worldwide. The use of mathematical models to inform time-bound projections and support WHO targets is growing. Never- theless, there is a lack of comprehensive synthesis regarding the extent to which mathematical frameworks for STH control account for the timeframe and effectiveness of interventions required to meet WHO programmatic goals.