Browsing by Author "Marchant, Rob"

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Integrating evidence of land use and land cover change for land management policy formulation along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands
(Elsevier, 2019-11) Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Boles, Oliver; Kariuki, Rebecca; Newman, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Marchant, Rob; Lane, Paul
This paper presents an overview of the scientific evidence providing insights into long term ecosystem and social dynamics across the northern Tanzania and southern Kenya borderlands. The data sources covered a range from palaeoenvironmental records and archaeological information to remote sensing and social science studies that examined human-environmental interactions and land use land cover changes (LULCC) in the region. This knowledge map of published LULCC research contributes to current debates about the drivers and dynamics of LULCC. The review aims to facilitate both multidisciplinary LULCC research and evidence-based policy analyses to improve familiarity and engagement between LULCC knowledge producers and end-users and to motivate research integration for land management policy formulation. Improving familiarity among researchers and non-academic stakeholders through the collation and synthesis of the scientific literature is among the challenges hindering policy formulation and land management decision-making by various stakeholders along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands. Knowledge syntheses are necessary; yet, do not fully bridge the gap between knowledge and policy action. Cooperation across the science-policy interface is fundamental for the co-production of research questions by academics, policy makers and diverse stakeholders aimed at supporting land management decision making. For improved co-development and co-benefitting outcomes, the LULCC scientific community needs to mobilise knowledge for a broader audience and to advance co-development of relevant and meaningful LULCC products.
Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania
(Zenodo, 2021-01-13) Kariuki, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.
(PLOS ONE, 2021-02-12) Kariuki, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
Late Quaternary Montane Forest Dynamics From Equatorial East Africa: A Biome Perspective
(Wiley Online Library, 2025-06-09) Githumb, Esther; Finch, Jemma; Finch, Jemma; Courtney-Mustaphi , Colin; Musili, Paul; Rucina, Stephen; Lejju, Julius; Liljenberg, Peter; Marchant, Rob
Aim: Understanding environmental change over large spatial and temporal scales requires working at a broad ecological scale to enable cross-site comparisons. This allows data-based comparisons to dynamic vegetation model outputs, with utility for cli- mate and land cover modelling. We synthesise multisite pollen data at the biome level to understand Equatorial Afromontane ecosystem response to climate change over the last 50,000 years and quantitatively document the timing, character and spatial patterns of ecosystem transitions. Location: Mountains of Equatorial East Africa.Time Period: Late Quaternary (50,000 cal year BP–present). Taxon: Angiosperms (trees, shrubs and grasses), gymnosperms (conifers), pteridophytes (ferns) and bryophytes (clubmosses). Methods: A literature review revealed 58 available published pollen sites from Equatorial East African Mountains. Original ge- ochronological and palynological data were collated from 34 sites from the African Pollen Database (APD) and directly from au- thors. Pollen taxonomies were updated and harmonised using the African Plant Database. The geochronologies were reanalysed and radiocarbon data (n = 219) were IntCal20 calibrated to develop linearly interpolated age-depth models. The 636 pollen taxa were grouped into 21 plant functional types and combined into seven biomes that represent the range of montane ecosystems. A rate of change analysis at each site provided a scale of the change through time at each site. Results: Mesic montane forest biomes were present throughout the 50,000 cal year BP. Cold and dry montane biomes expanded during and after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Warm and wet forest biomes expanded from the early Holocene and more open biomes expanded in the Late Holocene. Regional differences were observed, such as the Eastern Arc Mountain sites
Multiple paleofire proxy metrics from tropical lake sediment and soil in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem
(Sage, 2025-06) Mustaphi, Colin; Camara-Brugger, Sandra; Chellman, Nathan; Muñoz, Samuel; Kariuki, Rebecca; Damber, Maja; Shoemaker, Anna; Ekblom, Anneli; Munishi, Linus; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob; Heiri, Oliver
Black carbon is a paleofire proxy that has been measured from glacial ice, snow, soils and lake sediments, though relatively few comparisons have been made with other fire indicators in sedimentary geoarchives. Microscopic charcoal, quantified from palynological microscope slides and macroscopic charcoal, quantified from wet-sieved deposits, are the most commonly applied methods for paleofire interpretation of Quaternary sediments. This research explores the down-profile patterns across three paleofire proxies (refractory black carbon, microscopic and macroscopic charcoal) and potential paleofire interpretations from a sediment core dating to the last centuries from Speke Gulf, Lake Victoria, and a young soil profile from a kopje located in the surrounding watershed in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. The results of three paleofire metrics show similar trends within each site, with a positive trend across all metrics and increasing variability with increased measurement values (heteroscedastic). Notably, refractory black carbon (rBC) concentrations are two orders of magnitude higher in lake sediment samples compared to soil samples. rBC is positively correlated with both microscopic and macroscopic charcoal values and the overall profile patterns down the sediment core are similar, with the exception of the rBC increases from 2.5 to 0 cm depth that may result from increased fossil fuel combustion. The Speke Gulf rBC measurements are in an intermediate range between those published from glacial ice and other lake sediments. New rBC records from different ecosystems and temporal scales will provide paleofire insights and potential to interpret source areas and depositional patterns. The exploration of soil archives offers the potential to exploit semi-arid ecosystems and archaeological sites that have no nearby traditional paleoenvironmental study site targets.
Multiporate Poaceae pollen grains observed in the recent fossil record from the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem and Lake Victoria region
(Elsevier, 2025-02-01) Mustaphi, Colin; Camara-Brugger, Sandra; Ekblom, Anneli; Munishi, Linus; Kariuki, Rebecca; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
The analysis of fossil pollen from sediments is used to understand past vegetation and land cover variability. The observations of multiporate Poaceae pollen from sediments have received little attention in the literature and causes and rates of occurrence have few estimates, and the rates observed in the sediments are much lower than estimates observed from modern plants in Asia. Pollen analysis of the uppermost sediments from Speke Gulf, Lake Victoria, eastern Africa, showed relative abundances of Poaceae between 65 and 75% during the past centuries. A total of 19 of the ∼ 11,000 Poaceae pollen grains observed had conspicuous morphological variations and were documented. More consistent presence of abnormal grains occurred since the mid twentieth century, at the same time of increased anthropogenic environmental stressors. Multiporate pollen grains of Poaceae have been previously observed in Asia, South America, and northern Africa, predominantly in the Panicoideae subfamily. Morphological variations may present an added challenge for automated pollen identification techniques and descriptions of fossil pollen.
Pathways from research to sustainable development: Insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience
(Springer, 2023-11-23) Scaini, Anna; Mulligan, Joseph; Berg, Ha˚kan; Brangarı´, Albert; Bukachi, Vera; Carenzo, Sebastian; Thi, Da Chau; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Ekblom, Anneli; Fjelde, Hanne; Fridahl, Mathias; Hansson, Anders; Hicks, Lettice; Ho¨jer, Mattias; Juma, Benard; Kain, Jaan-Henrik; Kariuki, Rebecca; Kim, Soben; Lane, Paul; Leizeaga, Ainara; Lindborg, Regina; Livsey, John; Lyon, Steve; Marchant, Rob; McConville, Jennifer; Munishi, Linus; Nilsson, David; Olang, Luke; Olin, Stefan; Olsson, Lennart; Rogers, Peter; Rousk, Johannes; Sande´n, Hans; Sasaki, Nophea; Shoemaker, Anna; Smith, Benjamin; Phuong, Lan Thai; Varela, Ana; Venkatappa, Manjunatha; Vico, Giulia; Uexkull, Nina; Wamsler, Christine; Wondie, Menale; Zapata, Patrick; Campos, Marı´a Jose´; Manzoni, Stefano; Tompsett, Anna
Drawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger- scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycle
Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals
(Frontiers in Conservation Science, 2022-09-23) Kariuki, Rebecca; Capitani, Claudia; Munishi, Linus; Shoemaker, Anna; Mustaphi, Colin; William, Njonga; Lane, Paul; Marchant, Rob
Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals.
Tree demographics and soil charcoal evidence of fire disturbances in an inaccessible forest atop the Mount Lico inselberg, Mozambique
(John Wiley & Sons, 2024-10-24) Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Platts, Philip; Willcock, Simon; Timberlake, Jonathan; Osborne, Jo; Matimele, Hermenegildo; Osgood, Hanniah; Muiruri, Veronica; Gehrels, Maria; Bayliss, Julian; Marchant, Rob
Societal Impact Statement Highland forests of Mozambique have been strongly modified by human activities for millennia. Some highlands have sheer rock cliffs and are highly inaccessible to people and appear relatively undisturbed. Evidence from the forest and soils of inaccessible Mount Lico show that the fire regime has changed over the recent millennia. As climate and fire regimes continue to change, management of highland ecosystems will be crucial to sustain the high biodiversity and mountain-water resources that provide key ecosystem services to people living close to these forests. Summary The sheer rock cliffs of the Mount Lico inselberg, northern Mozambique, is relatively inaccessible to people. A 0.57 km2 forest covers the top of the isolated mountain, and the tree demographics and soil offer an opportunity to investigate the long-term fire ecology of the forests of the western, leeside of the mountain and potential for changing regional hydroclimate of the Late Holocene. On the western side of the mountaintop, a 20 × 20 m plot was surveyed for tree taxa, heights and bole diameters. A 220 cm deep pit was dug into the forest soil and analysed to describe the soil texture and carbon content. Charcoal was quantified on sieved subsamples and classified into charcoal morphologies that were then grouped by how readily entrainable on an index score. Three radiocarbon dates were collected from pieces charcoal. The forest is a combination of montane and woodland tree taxa that differed from the older, more mesic eastern side and reflected differential disturbance patterns. The reddish loam soils dated to the Middle Holocene. Charcoal was present in all soil subsamples and varied little until increasing consistently during the past millennium. The charcoal morphologies suggested a combination of locally derived charcoal and charcoal derived from the surrounding lowlands with the latter increasing in the past centuries. Few Holocene paleoenvironmental records have been developed from tropical soils in Africa and are useful in locations that do not host lakes and wetlands. Both tree demographics and soil charcoal suggest that changing forest disturbance regimes began during the past millennium. An understanding of history informs future conservation and appropriate management of these special places.