Browsing by Author "Irunde, Jacob Ismail"

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Mathematical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis in Human and Livestock with Control Strategies
(International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering (ijasre), 2019-10) Sabini, Theresia Shirima; Nyerere, Nkuba; Irunde, Jacob Ismail; Kuznetsov, Dmitry
A deterministic mathematical model for bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB) in humans and livestock is formulated and used to assess the effectiveness of dairy products inspection, human treatment and quarantine of infected livestock as the control of the disease transmission. The computed effective reproduction number shows that the disease can be cleared from the population if Re is less than unity and it persists if Re is greater than unity. It means that if Re<1 the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable which means the disease can be cleared from the population and endemic when Re>1 which implies the disease persists in the population. Numerical analysis was carried out to investigate how the controls can help to minimize the spread of the disease.
Modeling malaria sensitive and resistant strains with superinfection
(Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience, 2019-03-08) Bimbiga, Ivy; Irunde, Jacob Ismail; Kuznetsov, Dmitry
In this paper, a deterministic model to examine the dynamics of malaria with sensitive and resistant strains in the presence of superinfection is formulated and presented. The basic reproduction is computed using next-generation method and sensitivity index for each parameter with respect to reproduction number R0 is derived. The rate at which human beings are infected by malaria resistant strain and mosquitoes’ mortality rate are the most sensitive parameters to malaria transmission dynamics. Though analysis shows that the rates at which humans are infected by resistant strain and mosquitoes’ natural mortality rate are more sensitive to the disease transmission dynamics, still mosquitoes’ biting rate plays an important role in the transmission dynamics of malaria. To control malaria infection, interventions which increase mosquitoes’ natural mortality, and decrease their biting rate are recommended.
Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis
(Hindawi, 2020-03-30) Sabini, Theresia Shirima; Irunde, Jacob Ismail; Kuznetsov, Dmitry
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a bacterial and zoonotic disease which is transmitted through consumption of unpasteurized milk and uncooked meat and inhalation of aerosols. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model is formulated to study the transmission dynamics of bTB in humans and animals. The basic reproduction number R0 is computed to determine the behavior of the disease. Stability analysis shows that there is a possibility for disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium to coexist when R0 = 1. To determine parameters which drive the dynamics of bTB, we performed sensitivity analysis. The analysis shows that the rate at which dairy products are produced, the rate of transmission of bTB from animal to animal, and the rates at which human acquires bTB from infectious dairy products and animals drive the transmission of bTB. However, the disease decreases as the rate of consumption of dairy products decreases. To control bTB, education campaign, inspection of dairy products, treatment of infected humans, and quarantine of infected animals are recommended.
Modeling Transmission Dynamics of Northern Corn Leaf Blight Disease with Seasonal Weather Variations
(Journal of Mathematics and Informatics, 2019-01-31) Kapange, Fred; Irunde, Jacob Ismail; Kuznetsov, Dmitry
Northern Corn Leaf Blight (NCLB) disease is a fungal foliar disease caused by Exserohilum turcicum. Moderate temperature and high relative humidity are climatical conditions which favor the development of NCLB disease. A deterministic model for transmission dynamics of NCLB disease with seasonal weather variations is developed and vigorously analyzed. The basic reproduction number in the absence and presence of the impact of temperature and relative humidity is computed and the sensitivity analysis performed to determine the parameters’ relationship with basic reproduction number . The analysis shows that transmission rate from pathogen to susceptible maize plants, the pathogen’s shedding rate from infected maize plants to the environment and maize plants disease induced death rate are more sensitive to NCLB disease dynamics and they play an important role in its transmission. On the other hands when there are high or low temperature and low humidity, sensitive negative parameters increases as the results NCLB disease development decreases. However, increasing parameters such as natural death rate of the pathogen, the natural death rate for maize plants and maize plants’ disease induced death rate which have negative indices will reduce new infections. Moderate temperature and high relative humidity influence NCLB disease development.