Browsing by Author "Hyandye, Canute"

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A Markovian and cellular automata land-use change predictive model of the Usangu Catchment
(Taylor and Francis Online, 2017-01-02) Hyandye, Canute; Martz, Lawrence
Usangu Catchment, in Tanzania, is vital for its rice production in which more than 30% of Tanzanian rice is grown. The catchment is a part of the Southern Agricultural Corridor of Tanzania where major agricultural intensification is expected to take place. Given the role of this catchment, it is important to investigate the effect of agricultural intensification, land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and climate variability on water balance in the catchment. Thus, the objective of the study was to simulate Usangu Catchment’s LULC of 2020 based on LULC of 2000, 2006 and 2013 using Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Analysis.Social, edaphic, climatic and landscape geomorphology factors governing the LULC change and distribution were used to prepare LULC suitability maps in geographical information system.The relative importance of LULC change factors was determined using the analytic hierarchy process and aggregated using weighted linear combination under multi-criteria evaluation approach. The model was validated using simulated and observed LULC 2013. The standard kappa coefficient (κ-standard) and overall agreements of the model were 0.6776 and 0.9125, respectively. The error due to quantity is 0.0243 while error due to allocation is 0.0667. The simulated LULC 2020 scenario shows the increase in urban area by 8.2% and a major decrease in forestland and shrubs by 20.6% and 6.9%, respectively. About 19.6% grassland and 8.5% of agricultural land in 2013 will be converted to urban land by 2020. On the other hand, about 372.0 km2 (10.4%) of wetlands and 368.2 km2 (10.3%) of woodlands will be converted to agricultural land. The 2020 LULC simulation model of Usangu developed in this study provide some useful information for future LULC scenarios and data for water balance models and preparation of future ecological conservation plans.
Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
(MDPI, 2021-05-30) Said, Mateso; Hyandye, Canute; Mjemah, Ibrahimu; Komakech, Hans; Munishi, Linus
This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning.
Predicting land use/cover changes and its association to agricultural production on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
(Taylor & Francis Online, 2021-01-11) Said, Mateso; Hyandye, Canute; Komakech, Hans; Mjemah, Ibrahimu; Munishi, Linus
Increasing demand for food production results in Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, which afflicts the provision of ecosystem services in high mountain areas. This work used time-series LULC and selected spatial metrics to predict the LULC changes for Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed (on the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro) for the next decade. LULC maps were generated by classifying time-series satellite images. We further predicted the implications for selected staple crop production over the next decade. The simulated LULC shows expansion in built-up (by 32.55%/27.04 km2) and agriculture (by 39.52%/52.0 km2) areas from 2018 to 2030. These results suggest that urbanization is likely the next biggest threat to water availability and food production. Grasslands and wetlands are expected to decrease by 57.24% and 39.29%, respectively. The forest area is likely to shrink by 6.37%, about 9.82 km2, and 1.26 km2 being converted to agriculture and built-up areas, respectively. However, expansion in agricultural land shows very little increase in staple food crop production records, suggesting that farm size plays a minor role in increasing crop production. Predicting the near future LULC around KWK is useful for evaluating the likelihood of achieving development and conservation targets that are set locally, nationally and internationally.