Browsing by Author "Herzog, Catherine"

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Empirical and model-based evidence for a negligible role of cattle in peste des petits ruminants virus transmission and eradication
(Nature Publishing Group UK, 2024-08-03) Herzog, Catherine; Aklilu, Fasil; Sibhatu, Demeke; Shegu, Dereje; Belaineh, Redeat; Mohammed, Abde; Schulz, Claudia; Willett, Brian; Bailey, Dalan; Hudson, Peter; Buza, Joram; Forza, Mesfin
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) is a multi-host pathogen with sheep and goats as main hosts. To investigate the role of cattle in the epidemiology of PPR, we simulated conditions similar to East African zero-grazing husbandry practices in a series of trials with local Zebu cattle (Bos taurus indicus) co-housed with goats (Capra aegagrus hircus). Furthermore, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of PPRV-transmission from cattle to goats. Of the 32 cattle intranasally infected with the locally endemic lineage IV strain PPRV/Ethiopia/Habru/2014 none transmitted PPRV to 32 co-housed goats. However, these cattle or cattle co-housed with PPRV-infected goats seroconverted. The results confirm previous studies that cattle currently play a negligible role in PPRV-transmission and small ruminant vaccination is sufficient for eradication. However, the possible emergence of PPRV strains more virulent for cattle may impact eradication. Therefore, continued monitoring of PPRV circulation and evolution is recommended.
Identifying Age Cohorts Responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus Transmission among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania.
(MDPI, 2020-02-07) Herzog, Catherine; de Glanville, William; Willett, Brian; Cattadori, Isabella; Kapur, Vivek; Hudson, Peter; Swai, Emmanuel; Cleaveland, Sarah; Bjørnstad, Ottar; Buza, Joram
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5-3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.
Pastoral production is associated with increased peste des petits ruminants seroprevalence in northern Tanzania across sheep, goats and cattle
(Cambridge University Press, 2019-07-18) Herzog, Catherine; de Glanville, William; Willett, Brian; Kibona, Tito; Cattadori, Isabella; Kapur, Vivek; Hudson, Peter; Buza, Joram; Cleaveland, Sarah; Bjørnstad, Ottar
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data col- lected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1–22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0–6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3–32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The asso- ciated reproductive numbers (R0 ) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32–1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37–1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R 0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly posi- tively correlated (R2 : 0.59–0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to under- stand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.
Peste des petits ruminants Virus Transmission Scaling and Husbandry Practices That Contribute to Increased Transmission Risk: An Investigation among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania
(MDPI, 2020-08-24) Herzog, Catherine; de Glanville, William; Willett, Brian; Cattadori, Isabella; Kapur, Vivek; Hudson, Peter; Buza, Joram; Swai, Emmanuel; Cleaveland, Sarah; Bjørnstad, Ottar
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes an infectious disease of high morbidity and mortality among sheep and goats which impacts millions of livestock keepers globally. PPRV transmission risk varies by production system, but a deeper understanding of how transmission scales in these systems and which husbandry practices impact risk is needed. To investigate transmission scaling and husbandry practice-associated risk, this study combined 395 household questionnaires with over 7115 cross-sectional serosurvey samples collected in Tanzania among agropastoral and pastoral households managing sheep, goats, or cattle (most managed all three, n = 284, 71.9%). Although self-reported compound-level herd size was significantly larger in pastoral than agropastoral households, the data show no evidence that household herd force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) increased with herd size. Seroprevalence and FOI patterns observed at the sub-village level showed significant spatial variation in FOI. Univariate analyses showed that household herd FOI was significantly higher when households reported seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat introduction to the compound, death, sale, or giving away of animals in the past 12 months, when cattle were grazed separately from sheep and goats, and when the household also managed dogs or donkeys. Multivariable analyses revealed that species, production system type, and goat or sheep introduction or seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat death or sales, or goats given away in the past 12 months significantly increased odds of seroconversion, whereas managing pigs or cattle attending seasonal grazing camps had significantly lower odds of seroconversion. Further research should investigate specific husbandry practices across production systems in other countries and in systems that include additional atypical host species to broaden understanding of PPRV transmission.