Browsing by Author "Damiano, Ester"

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Modeling the role of environmental contamination and non-human primates in the transmission dynamics of Marburg virus disease
(Springer Nature, 2025-10-24) Damiano, Ester; Irunde, Jacob; Mayengo, Maranya
Marburg virus disease is a highly virulent zoonotic infection, characterized by sporadic outbreaks and high mortality rates posing a significant public health threat. Despite strong evidence that MVD is zoonotic, the roles of non-human primates and contaminated environments in its transmission dynamics remain under-explored. This study investigates the role of environmental contamination and non-human primates in the transmission dynamics of MVD. A deterministic mathematical model incorporating humans, bats, monkeys, and environmental viral loads is employed to analyze MVD transmission. The basic reproduction number () is derived to examine the stability properties of the steady states. Sensitivity analysis shows that non-human primates and contaminated environments influence the dynamics of MVD in humans. The findings from numerical simulations indicate that shedding of Marburg virus from bats, monkeys, and humans plays a significant role in maintaining viral persistence. At the same time, the environment-to-human transmission remains a critical driver of the outbreak. Because direct control of non-human primates is ecologically infeasible, interventions should focus on accelerating environmental virus decay, reducing human exposure to contaminated sites, and strengthening infection prevention in healthcare set. These findings offer quantitative insights for developing targeted strategies to minimize MVD in the human population.