Browsing by Author "Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin"
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Item Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania(Zenodo, 2021-01-13) Kariuki, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, RobRapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.Item Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.(PLOS ONE, 2021-02-12) Kariuki, Rebecca; Munishi, Linus; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Capitani, Claudia; Shoemaker, Anna; Lane, Paul; Marchant, RobRapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.Item Pathways from research to sustainable development: Insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience(Springer, 2023-11-23) Scaini, Anna; Mulligan, Joseph; Berg, Ha˚kan; Brangarı´, Albert; Bukachi, Vera; Carenzo, Sebastian; Thi, Da Chau; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Ekblom, Anneli; Fjelde, Hanne; Fridahl, Mathias; Hansson, Anders; Hicks, Lettice; Ho¨jer, Mattias; Juma, Benard; Kain, Jaan-Henrik; Kariuki, Rebecca; Kim, Soben; Lane, Paul; Leizeaga, Ainara; Lindborg, Regina; Livsey, John; Lyon, Steve; Marchant, Rob; McConville, Jennifer; Munishi, Linus; Nilsson, David; Olang, Luke; Olin, Stefan; Olsson, Lennart; Rogers, Peter; Rousk, Johannes; Sande´n, Hans; Sasaki, Nophea; Shoemaker, Anna; Smith, Benjamin; Phuong, Lan Thai; Varela, Ana; Venkatappa, Manjunatha; Vico, Giulia; Uexkull, Nina; Wamsler, Christine; Wondie, Menale; Zapata, Patrick; Campos, Marı´a Jose´; Manzoni, Stefano; Tompsett, AnnaDrawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger- scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycleItem Tree demographics and soil charcoal evidence of fire disturbances in an inaccessible forest atop the Mount Lico inselberg, Mozambique(John Wiley & Sons, 2024-10-24) Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; Platts, Philip; Willcock, Simon; Timberlake, Jonathan; Osborne, Jo; Matimele, Hermenegildo; Osgood, Hanniah; Muiruri, Veronica; Gehrels, Maria; Bayliss, Julian; Marchant, RobSocietal Impact Statement Highland forests of Mozambique have been strongly modified by human activities for millennia. Some highlands have sheer rock cliffs and are highly inaccessible to people and appear relatively undisturbed. Evidence from the forest and soils of inaccessible Mount Lico show that the fire regime has changed over the recent millennia. As climate and fire regimes continue to change, management of highland ecosystems will be crucial to sustain the high biodiversity and mountain-water resources that provide key ecosystem services to people living close to these forests. Summary The sheer rock cliffs of the Mount Lico inselberg, northern Mozambique, is relatively inaccessible to people. A 0.57 km2 forest covers the top of the isolated mountain, and the tree demographics and soil offer an opportunity to investigate the long-term fire ecology of the forests of the western, leeside of the mountain and potential for changing regional hydroclimate of the Late Holocene. On the western side of the mountaintop, a 20 × 20 m plot was surveyed for tree taxa, heights and bole diameters. A 220 cm deep pit was dug into the forest soil and analysed to describe the soil texture and carbon content. Charcoal was quantified on sieved subsamples and classified into charcoal morphologies that were then grouped by how readily entrainable on an index score. Three radiocarbon dates were collected from pieces charcoal. The forest is a combination of montane and woodland tree taxa that differed from the older, more mesic eastern side and reflected differential disturbance patterns. The reddish loam soils dated to the Middle Holocene. Charcoal was present in all soil subsamples and varied little until increasing consistently during the past millennium. The charcoal morphologies suggested a combination of locally derived charcoal and charcoal derived from the surrounding lowlands with the latter increasing in the past centuries. Few Holocene paleoenvironmental records have been developed from tropical soils in Africa and are useful in locations that do not host lakes and wetlands. Both tree demographics and soil charcoal suggest that changing forest disturbance regimes began during the past millennium. An understanding of history informs future conservation and appropriate management of these special places.